Gleaming Future: Better prospects for Humanity

Human beings are designed to be local optimists and global pessimist. Most of us suffer from band wagon effect, we have the propensity to believe things others do.  In newspapers 90% of news  articles are pessimistic, because good news doesn’t catch our attention. Human beings  for the last 150,000 years metamorphosed in local and linear way but today’s environment is global and exponential. At the time of our ancestors everything used to happen within a day’s walk in their linear and exceptionally  slow environment. 

                Days of isolation are behind us, Pendemics don’t show courtesy to borders, neither do terrorist., important thing is to raise global standards of living. 20th century has witnessed incredible advancement and unspeakable tragedy. 1918 influenza epidemic killed 50 million people, WWII killed 60 million, in the same period infant mortality reduced by 90 %, Maternal mortality 99 % and overall lifespan of humans have jacked up more than 100 %.  Cost of food tumbled 13 fold, cost of energy 20 fold, cost of transportation 100 fold.

                It is not a question of availibity but accessibility . Abundance means providing every one with life of possibility and feasibility not with life of extravagance. 174 peta watts (174 *10¹⁷) solar energy hits our atmosphere, half reaches surface.  While human beings utilize 16 terra watts. The amount of solar energy falls on earth’s surface is 5000 times our current needs. 70 % of earth is covered with oceans, while 97% of water in oceans is salty. Large chunk of 3 % water is stored in  underground aquifers. We should not tap this fossil water and use it because it took millions of years for water to get stored in the form of aquifers.

                Currently one billion people are strapped for safe drinking water and 2.6 billion lack access of basic sanitation, which leads to more than half of world’s hospitalizations . Right now more people have access to mobile phones than toilet.

                Poverty is measured in 2 scales. 1. Absolute poverty: number of people living under certain incomes threshold. 2. Relative poverty: comparing individual’s income with average income of whole economy.  In 2008  people living below 1.25$ were considered as living below poverty line. Today most poverty stricken American or Europeans have indoor toilets, plumbing, telephone, electricity and running water. If Somalians living below 1.25 $  get these basic things abruptly become rich.

                Providing Vitamin A supplement removes the leading cause of preventable blindness from global health equation.

                There is a key relation between improvement of health and population growth. Key thing to curtail population growth is to boost up  health. Let’s look at the Moroccon example . In 1971 when child mortality rate was high and life expectancy rate was low, Moroccan women used to have 7.8 children on average. , after making strides in  improving water, sanitation, health care and women’s rights now Morocco’s baby boom is winding down. Its average birth rate is 2.7 now.  While population growth is 1.6 percent because people are living longer and healthier lives.

                Traditional education system developed in the midst of industrial revolution in 19th century. One size fits all doesn’t always work. In Today’s  educational system hierarchy is like math and science top, humanities in the middle and art at the bottom. Creative ideas and innovation are the ultimate resource in rapidly growing technological culture and ever growing information- based economy. Providing sound foundation to our children in critical thinking, literacy and math is the way to go in the future.

                 

                Access to the strategic use of ICT (Information communication technologies) have the potential to bring economic development, poverty reduction, freedom of speech, free flow of information and promotion of human rights. World has already witnessed the changes in the last 10-15years.

                According to Daniel Kahnemann our reliance of heuristics sometimes lead to what he calls “Severe and systemic errors” .

                In 19th century  London was becoming inhabitable because the streets were heaped up with horse manure. There was no blatant fix to that. They had no idea the car was coming soon and they would be gnawing at dirty skies and not filthy streets.

                Prosperity is best defined by the time saved to achieve a task.  The true measure of something’s worth is the hours it takes to acquire it. Rural peasant woman in Malawi, Africa spends 35 % of time farming food, 33 % cooking and cleaning, 17% fetching clean water and 5 % in collecting firewood. Which leaves less than 10% time to do something productive or to find job so that she can come out of this  vicious cycle .

                In past wages were low and cost of production was high. In 1880s people used kerosene lamp for which they had to work for 15 minutes for an hour of light. Tallow candle in 1800s used to cost 6 hours of work and in 1750 BC in Babylon for sesame oil lamp it would have cost more than 50 hours of work. Travelling  from Boston to Chicago in 1880s took 2 weeks  with stage coach and month’s wages, Today it takes 2 hours and a day’s wage. Osborn executive bleeding edge computer released in 1982 weighed about 28 pounds with cost over 2,500 $, compared with first Iphone released in 2007 , which weighed 1/100th  as much, 1/10th of cost, with 150 times processing speed and 100,000 times more memory. On dollar cost averaging per calculation I phone is 150,000 times more price efficient than Osborn executive bleeding edge computer.

                In the future new technologies will be incorporated in our bodies.  For example Neuro prosthetics to augment congnition, nanobots to make amends for the ravages of disease. Whole education scenario is changing, earlier it was based on the rote memorization and regurgitation of knowledge, to the encouragement of productive thinking, challenging authority, critical analysis and innovation.  For ultra low cost fuels  work is being carried out on designer algae which feast on carbon dioxide and ocean water to produce oil. Want gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, give designer algae the proper DNA instructions and let biotechnology do its wonders. With same technology vaccines can be produced within 24 hours.

                Exxon Mobil is investing in renewable particularly in Bio fuels from algae.  Algae can produce 30 times more energy per acre than conventional bio fuels like corn etc. This algae requires sunlight, carbon dioxide and sea water. So we don’t need to compete for fresh water for agriculture. Corn produces 18 gallons per acre per year, palm oil about 625 gallons and genetically modified algae 10,000 gallons per acre per year. Which means 2 square miles which is 1280 acres. At 10000 gallons per acre it is 12.8 million gallons of fuel per year. Enough to fuel 26, 000 cars for a year. 18,750 miles are required to make up for US total fuel needs for a year. Prices for solar power falling 5-6 % every year and capacity is growing at a rate of 30 % per year.

                In solar panels main cost is expensive crystalline silicon. Companies are making silicon wafers thinner and the cost of silicon is reduced to half within 5 years from 2005-2010. Engineers at  MIT have developed carbon Nano-tubes to concentrate solar energy  and Photvoltaic panels 100 times more efficient . Instead for having photovoltaic cells on your whole roof you could have tiny PV antennas that would drive photons onto them . Now ordinary  windows can be turned into PV panels by placing thin film on. Which can produce electricity from both natural and artificial light sources.

                There is  a lot happening in health sector. 3D printing of human organs is underway for example human ear, urinary bladder etc. In medicine we desperately need error-free, low cost, easy to use, point of care, diagnostics designed for developing world, This all can be delivered through LOC technology. Lab on chip (LOC) is another game changing technology under development. Packaged into cell phone sized device. It will allow doctors, nurses and patients to take sample fluids like urine, blood, sputum etc  and run dozens of tests. Another upside of LOC technology is to gather data because chips are online, the information is uploaded to cloud and can be downloaded at an information gathering portal for example CDC. Epidemiologists have the access to the incredibly rich data. Which would transform and revolutionize healthcare system from reactive and generic to predictive and personalized.             

                In future we will be able to detect cancers by monitoring blood, urine, breath. Once detected remove them robotically . Robot can find tiny cancerous  lesions, insert needle and oblitereate it, just like we do for cancerous mole today.

                Health care is heading towards P4 medicine which stands for Predictive, personalized, preventive and participator. A new technology called RNA interference  which turns off specific genes by turning off  messenger RNA for example A research was carried at Harvard in which fat insulin receptor was switched off in mice which consumed plenty of calories but remained thin and healthy.

                Most of the countries have war due to   dispute on water resources.  Jordan river is the bone of contection between Jordan and Israel. 3,5 million people die due to water related illnesses every year. There is nothing clearer than the direct link between health and hydration.  Every year human beings consume  almost 50 billions of fossil water in the form of bottled water. It took tens of thousands of years for water to accumulate in aquifers and it is not easily replenished. Fossil water is the most subtle ecosystems in the world . 97.3 % of water on our planet is too salty to be used. 2 % is blocked in polar ice and 0.7 % is available for use. Sling shot water purifying system  is almost of the size of room refrigerator which can purify 1000 L of water every day with same amount of energy as hair dryer. This system can be run maintenance free for at least 5 years. Which cost 0.002 $ per liter of water.

                We are  entering in an era of molecular manufacturing, working at this scale changes the physical properties exclusively. On plumbing front fixtures are built with self cleaning Nano materials  that clear all clogs and wipe out corrosion. , Nano based self healing pipes to repair leaks on their own.

            There are people who consider genetically engineered  crops are frakenstein (GE modified) food is sin against nature is pretty ridiculous. More than trillion GE meals have been served til 2008 and not a single case of GE induced illness has turned up. In India  farmers adopted BT cotton in 2002, since then india became from net exporter of cotton. BT cotton increased yield by 50 percent and decreased pesticide use by 50 percent. Right now we are enjoying first generation BT crops, soon we would not only be able to grow crops in drought or in saline conditions but with ocean water.  Crops fortified with zinc, iron  vitamins A, E or D , which are virus  or bacteria resistant.

                Innovating techniques of farming are emerging and helping to improve yield and provide out of season varieties. Vertical farming first started by the soldiers in 2nd word war in barren islands, arid deserts. In vertical farming soil is not required , water containing all the required nutrients can serve the purpose. In Hydroponic technique plants are grown in nutrient rich water solution. Aeorponic technique (Plants are suspended in midair while food is delivered through nutrient rich mist) is discovered in 1983 by Richard Stoner. Conventional farming uses 70% water on planet, while Hydroponics are 70 % more efficient than traditional and Aeroponics is 70% more efficient  than Hydroponics. By promoting Aeroponics we can conserve water use from 70% to 6 %.            

                Charities may give food to the people, especially poorest of the poors and the underdogs. It’s the social entrepreneurs who  don’t just teach the people to grow food, but to make money by growing  food, pour profits back into business, hire  other people and contribute to the soceity. Bill Gates donated 10 billion $ for vaccines, which is largest ever pledge made by a charitable foundation to a single cause. In 2010 Bill Gates and Warren Buffet announced “Giving pledge” in which rich billionaires were asked to donate half of their wealth to charities with their lifetime. This pledge was joined by George Soros, Ted Turner and David Rockefeller immediately. Later on joined, Mark Zuckerberg, Dustin Markovitz, Paul Allen. Waleed bin Talal a Saudi prince in 2015 announced to donate 32 billion$ for Philanthropy. By that time it was the largest ever pledge made by any man/ organization in the world.            

               

                Thomas Edison once said  “I have not failed , i have just found thousand ways that don’t work” .  Fearlessness is like a muscle: the more we use it , the stronger it becomes. Bottom line is taking risks which is an indispensible part of innovation. According to Amartya Sen  the nobel laureate , lack of food and water, clothing shelter, education, affordable healthcare or sanitation facilities are major sources of unfreedom. There is a strong case of optimism for all of us for the marvelous technological possibilities of near and distant future.

This writing is inspired by the works of greats like Peter Diamandis, Ray Kurzweil , Matt Ridley, Steven Kotler and my most respected Late Prof  Hans Rosling.

               

               

Global Monetary Shenangians

In today’ hyper-charged  world where different centres of power are emerging  nuclear arsenal has become frightening mantelpiece . It involves more optics and less operational value. Financial war has become “Hyper-strategic” weapon, as it can easily be masked and juggled with. Government itself doesn’t generate any money. It doesn’t have any of its own money, It prints money, get it by Tax collection, borrow from local private banks or from abroad.

                In Corrupt nations elite echelons of society conduct like lechers not leaders, as parasites on host body of the community more like the  “rent seekers”. They like to stash wealth by non productive  means. This is how post modern finance works.

            On August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon banned dollars to gold conversion and introduced the new economic policy. Dollar crisis spreads through equity and commodity market . When dollar collapses, dollar denominated markets also collapse, Panic spreads quickly throughout the world. Deflation is closely correlated and  normally accompanies deflation. There is tug of war between inflation and deflation and Dollar serves as a rope to bear the stress.

            Printing dollar out of thin air  in US means, inflation in China, higher food and other commodity prices elsewhere. Devaluation of dollar in US makes exports expensive from others  countries  to US, which results in  more unemployment in developing economies. To tackle this other countries have to devalue their local currencies to keep their exports alive. Which cause inflation in their own countries.

            Some economists lobby for global currency called SDR (special drawing rights). It would be extremely dicey  to have SDR without tackling current currency pligt. Pentagon is cognizant of  how financial markets work under the age of greed, shortsightedness, deregulation, speculative mindset and bad intent, In the best of times Wall street is like wild west, but with globalization it has become more out of control.

            There are four components to GDP growth i.e 1. Consumption 2. Investment. 3. Government spending,4. Net exports. Currency wars are usually fought internationally but are driven by domestic  distress i.e insufficient  internal growth. In case of total financial melt down, US still had massive gold reserve, which is not stored in civil banks but military bases i.e Fort knox in Kentucky , west point along Hudson river in New york, which ensures the connection between national wealth and national security. Dollar or any other paper currency can be printed by the central bank but a currency backed by hard asset or commoditiy has real value attached to it and can’t be printed out of thin air.

            In order to cut exports cost   US cuts interests rates. Which makes dollar less attractive in foreign market or by devaluation of dollar.  A worst form of protectionism, by devaluation, embargoes and tarrifs on exports from other countries.  

            Gold has always been a “Gold standard” as a currency. It had been standard since 600 B:C to modern Turkey.  England had gold backed currency from 1717 until it debased it in 1931. France in 1936 debased its currency from gold, Germany until 1915 had the fourth largest gold reserves after US, Russia and France.

            Before 1945 pound sterling was the major reserve currency in the world, reduced to 26 % in 1965. US dollar is 61 %  of identified reserves  currencies as of 2011, it was 71% in 2000, euro is about 26 % in 2011. This is due to expansion of trade between Europe and Asia and within Asia itself.  Perhaps it is 49 % which is tipping point when dollar  will lose dominance and its importance as world’s single major reserve currency. Charles deGaule in 1965 said in a speech that world should return to gold standard , It is the reserve which doesn’t have any particular country’s mark.

            Chinese case is rather very compelling and there are many lessons to be learned from Chinese miracle. Modern Chinese miracle began  in 1975 , announced by Zhou Enlai with modernization  in four main areas, Agriculture, industry, defence and technology.

            Deng Xiao Peng in 1979 took monumental decision to establish special economic zones offering enabling and encouraging work rules, reduced regulation and tax benefits designed to entice foreign investment, particularly in manufacturing, assembly and textile industries.  China launched a program of development of economic zones along the coastal cities of eastern china in 1984.  In 1997 US trade deficit with china was 50 billion $, which increased to 234 billion $ in 2006 .  Chinese growth is mainly driven by foreign direct investment which is 48 % of total GDP while it is 12%  in US. China has emerged as the manufacturing powerhouse over few decades, together it manged to pull out millions of slum dwellers from abject poverty.

            Euro in the eurozone is a sweet spot for Germany.  As export nation Germany favours weaker Euro. Weaker Euro is in favour of Germany, it makes German exports and from the countries who trade in euro cheaper and more competitive . European debt crisis over the years gave Germany a dominant position in Eurozone because it has surplus Euro liquidity for years. Germany has emerged as the major lender in Euro zone and thus it managed to extend its political clout as well.

            In global vista if a country has annual trade surplus in excess of 4% of GDP, it  is an indicator that currency of surplus country to be re-valued in order to shift the trade balance from the surplus country towards trade deficit country. This is something which happens under classical gold standard automatically. With paper currencies countries themselves artificially revalue.

            For every war there is neutral venue, and in currency war Dubai is the venue .Dubai is world’s largest trans-shipment point for paper currencies. There are some secure sites near Dubai international airport where massive amounts of banknotes are stored, awaiting return to their issuing banks.

            Gold is not only a commodity but money which has a real value attached to it. All discovered gold can be fit into cube of 20 meters cube  on each side. Gold supply per year is  around 1.5 % .  Financial worth of Nation’s currency is its Achilles heel .  If currency collapses everything else collapse. Paper currency can be produced at anytime by any central bank but Gold or any other currency backed by hard asset can’t be produced . Having and international reserve currency backed by hard asset i.e Gold, Silver or any other agreed commodity would end the unfair play of manipulating with local currencies. This would create an autonomous balance between trade-surplus and trade- deficit countries. Countries which have more the 4 % of their GDP and surplus would loose the advantage and their exports would not remain competitive.